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- Primary Subject: The Witcher 4 (Budget Rumors / Analyst Forecast)
- Key Update: An analyst estimate suggests CD Projekt Red’s The Witcher 4 spending could reach near-$800M when combining development and marketing projections.
- Status: Leaked
- Last Verified: January 23, 2026
- Quick Answer: A Noble Securities analyst estimate suggests The Witcher 4 could approach $800M including marketing, though some argue the figure reflects broader multi-project Witcher-era investment.
The claim that The Witcher 4 could end up as one of the most expensive RPGs ever made is coming from a combination of analyst forecasts, investor-driven reporting, and heated community debate whenever a blockbuster budget gets tied to a beloved franchise.
The core estimate tied to Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski suggests CD Projekt Red may be preparing a spend that’s far beyond anything the studio has done before, with numbers often translated and repeated as roughly PLN 1.4 billion for development and a similar amount for marketing, which gets interpreted as a combined total hovering near the $800 million range after conversion.
Development alone is expensive, but marketing could be close to the same scale, which is what makes the overall budget feel historically huge.
The figure sounds so shocking largely because of comparisons, with The Witcher 3 commonly mentioned as far cheaper to make and Cyberpunk 2077 used as CDPR’s modern in-house benchmark for high-budget development.
Even if people disagree on the exact number, the bigger point is that CDPR appears to be spending more because Witcher 4 is being treated less like a sequel and more like a company-defining relaunch for the next several years.
Where Did the “$800 Million Budget” Story Come From?
The budget conversation gets messier because people can’t agree on what the “near-$800M” number is actually describing, as several commenters question whether it’s a misleading headline and suggest the figure makes more sense as a multi-project investment across the next Witcher era.
That debate matches the investor-focused Polish reporting, which frames Witcher 4 as part of CDPR’s wider roadmap, including a possible paid Witcher 3 expansion in May 2026 to sustain revenue and bridge into Witcher 4’s marketing push, plus a projected Witcher 4 launch in Q4 2027 based on updated timelines.
The analyst also points out that estimates for the trilogy’s total cost have increased compared to earlier projections, and argues that Witcher 4 would carry the bulk of the spending since it funds new technology and groundwork that later games can reuse.
That’s why part of the online pushback is less about denying it outright and more about saying it’s being misread, because shared budgets, tech investments, and marketing overlaps between close releases can complicate what “Witcher 4 cost” actually means.
Why Would The Witcher 4 Need Such a Massive Marketing Budget?
Even if people don’t fully buy it, the “most expensive RPG” rumor keeps landing because it feels realistic in the current AAA scene, where marketing budgets are increasingly questioned and some players see huge promo numbers as a bad sign—either overhype, executive bloat, or a product that needs advertising power to compensate for flaws.
Others push back and argue that marketing at this scale is exactly how blockbuster releases win attention in a crowded market, especially when publishers are competing with cultural giants like GTA 6 for mindshare.
At the same time, the debate isn’t purely doomposting because it also reflects what CDPR is trying to build and what kind of game fans actually want.
Some people argue massive budgets can cause creative safety, where studios stop taking risks because they need the broadest possible audience to make the numbers work, which can lead to generic design and open-world “bloat.”
Others say Witcher doesn’t need a full reinvention, it just needs refinement through improved combat, stronger reactivity in the right places, and the same quest quality and atmosphere that defined Witcher 3.
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