FIFA 21 Black Friday Market Crash: When To Buy & Sell Teams, Reasons Behind Price Crashes, Investments To Make And More
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FIFA 21 Black Friday Market Crash: When To Buy & Sell Teams, Reasons Behind Price Crashes, Investments To Make And More

Matt Thomas
17 November 2020

The Black Friday Market Madness has begun!

The Black Friday Market Crash season is well and truly here in FIFA 21 Ultimate Team, with tonnes of players seeing dramatic price changes during a frantic period of FUT.

With the Black Friday Promotion set to arrive in the next couple of weeks, there’s plenty of action on the FUT market as players buy and sell players in preparation for the notoriously pack heavy event that is usually very impactful on the market.

Early Black Friday Market Crash Price Drops!

As most of you may have seen with a brief look at the FUT market over the weekend, there were some crazy price drops occurring, with player prices falling out of the sky, with some cards down well over 25%!

We’ll go into some reasons as to why this occurred in a little, as well as what’s expected from the market over the coming few days and next week, but first off, let’s take a look at some of the whooping drops in price on some popular Weekend League favourites we saw between last Thursday (Nov 12th) and Monday (Nov 16th)!

A quick note, the prices shown here are taken from FUTBIN and are relating solely to the PS4 market, given that’s where the majority of the FUT player base resides.

Neymar 91- 1,160,000 > 1,000,000 - 13.8% Fall

One of the most popular cards in the game saw a big fall in price over the weekend, with Neymar dropping ~150k+ over the course of the weekend, going under 1,000,000 for the first time this year at a point on Monday.When a card as heavily demanded as Neymar drops this much over the course of a day or two, you know something is up with the FUT market.

Mbappe 90 - 1,500,000 > 1,300,000 - 13.4% Fall

Another one of the WL big guns fell significantly over the last few days, with Mbappe dropping from a massive 1.5 million coins to under 1.3 million at points on Sunday and Monday.

Possibly the biggest value drop of any card at 200,000 coins before tax, a lot of guys will have taken a hit with Mbappe in their squads.

Varane 86 - 310,000 > 250,000 - 19.4% Fall

Despite being possibly the most popular CB this year, Varane was not immune to a crash over the weekend, taking a near 20% fall from over 300,000 coins all the way down to 250,000 and under at the weekend. 

Gomez 83 - 110,000 > 80,000 - 27.3% Fall

We all know how good Joe Gomez is this year in FUT, however he took a big tumble over the weekend from 110,000 coins plus all the way down to around 80,000 coins, with drops down to even 69,000 coins just before Squad Battle rewards on PS4 on Sunday evening.

Why Did Cards Fall So Much?

The question on many a traders’ minds will be, why did these cards fall so heavily over this weekend just gone? Really, there are multiple reasons as to why cards dropped as much as they did:

  • Black Friday is in less than 2 weeks, and the famous “Black Friday Market Crash” is always feared by FUT players.
  • Weekly sell-off of FUT Champs teams
  • Added panic from a repeatable TOTW Upgrade SBC in the pack code.

Starting off with the first of the list, the world famous “Black Friday Market Crash.” There’s become an assumption in years’ past that the market falls heavily on Black Friday due to the sheer volume of packs that are opened, causing the entire market and player prices to fall dramatically in the process. Because of this assumption, over the last week, people sold off cards in droves to “get ahead of the crowd” and avoid losing a tonne of coins later over Black Friday.

In reality, what we saw was a market crash completely triggered and exacerbated by panic selling. Once people saw cards beginning to fall, a snowball effect was created, whereby more and more people started selling off their teams and clubs out of fear of them falling further, meaning more price drops, meaning more panic selling, etc etc.

The result, as we saw, was drops on a number of the high tier meta cards that make it into so many people’s teams, from everyone joining the bandwagon and selling in this panic for Black Friday in 2 weeks.

In reality, we'd expect the market to rise coming up to and after Black Friday, due to people buying back teams in great numbers, alongside the big coin injections that occur from the high levels of spending on pack offers and SBCs over the course of the promotion.

Now, another thing to add onto this is the regularly scheduled FUT Champions sell-off that occurs every week, where players sell off their teams after completing their 30 FUT Champions games. More people did this than ever this week when they saw the drops in player prices, adding furthermore to the fall in prices.

Finally, the addition of a TOTW repeatable SBC in the pack code added even more panic into the mix, with players fearing people liquidating clubs and teams in order to try their luck at packing some of the best TOTW cards that have been released so far.

This concoction of factors lead to one of the bigger crashes we’ve seen over the first month or so of FIFA 21 Ultimate Team.

Where Does The FUT Market Go From Here?

So then, now that we’ve had a weekend of the market crashing and people selling off their teams and clubs, where do we go from here?

Well, you’ll be pleased to know, for a number of top level cards that make it into people’s teams, the worst has probably passed, barring another similar crash this weekend due to further weekend league sell off or news of a new Friday promo or release. We’ve already seen rebounds on a number of higher tier cards, with Mbappe already back up 50k, Neymar already up 30-40k, Gomez up 10k, Kante up 30k etc, the list goes on. 

Last year in FUT 20, the biggest drops and lowest prices came around this time, 2 weeks before Black Friday, where a large portion of the FUT player base joined together and sold players in one fell swoop to get out early ahead of Black Friday.

In terms of the next few days, expect the market to slowly rebound over the coming days, with a big rise on Thursday at rewards for meta cards as people buyback any teams that they sold last weekend.

There’s no secret that a lot of people are without teams at the moment given the big price drops over the weekend, meaning a lot of players will be in the market for a team for this upcoming FUT Champions Weekend League.

Coupled with the fact that the overall market base is relatively nervous and apprehensive, meaning fewer investors and supply, the market should rebound well at rewards this week.

As far as how the market will perform at the back end of this week and into next week, it partly depends on the level of the sell-off this weekend and how much panic can be replicated from last weekend’s sell-off, as well as the content that arrives this Friday.

Are we getting a new promo? What will Season 2 deliver? Will we get the first Icon SBCs of the year, if so, who, and with what requirements? There are tonnes of variables here!

What Do I Do With My Team/Investments?

To finish off, what should you consider doing with your team or investments to avoid losing coins? Now, as we’ve discussed, there are a number of uncertain factors regarding upcoming content that can always throw in curveballs, so be sure to monitor the market regularly, but these are some general tips.

  • Don’t panic! In a market crash filled with panic and panic selling, don’t add to the problem. People that panic sold over the weekend sold at possibly the lowest point at the market so will likely have to buy back higher. If everyone’s selling, don’t join the crowd!
  • If looking to buy, the best times over the next week or two will likely be in the weekend league sell-off this weekend, as people will still likely be liquidating teams before Black Friday hits next week. You can also look for some panic on Black Friday itself, the 27th, in the morning before the promo starts, as there should be some pre-promo panic then.
  • If you’re looking to sell, we’d recommend taking the coins on teams and/or other investments around Thursday at rewards, as there should be a good buyback of teams from players that sold last week, and with little investor supply, the rises should be decent.
  • Finally, with regards to investments, we’d recommend staying relatively liquid and just trading quickly, flipping cards for small consistent profits rather than investing heavily in cards. With a nervous market and Black Friday upcoming, it’s best to just keep those coins moving around making small profits rather than investing heavily and getting caught in a wave of panic from the rest of the community. If you’re set on investing, you can begin to look at some SBC Fodder and base Icons, as these could both be required for upcoming Icon SBCs, plus meta base icons should do well come Black Friday, going out of packs soon after and getting into more teams.

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